Gains from trade and measured total factor productivity

Abstract

We develop and calibrate a model where differences in factor endowments lead countries to trade different goods, so that the existence of international trade changes the sectorial composition of output from one country to another. Gains from trade reflect in total factor productivity. We perform a development decomposition, to assess the impact of trade — and barriers to trade — on measured TFP. In our sample, the median size of that effect is about 6.5% of output, with a mean of 17% and a maximum of 89%. Also, the model predicts that changes in the terms of trade cause a change of productivity, and that effect has an average elasticity of 0.73.