Gaining Insight from Semi-Variograms into Machine Learning Performance of Rock Domains at a Copper Mine

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being leveraged by the mining industry to understand how rock properties vary at a mine site. In previously published work, the rock type, granodiorite, was predicted with high accuracy by the random forest (RF) ML method at the Erdenet copper mine in Mongolia. As a result of the optimistic results (86% overall success rate), this paper extended the research to determine if ML would be successful in modeling rock domains. Rock domains are groups of rocks that occur together. There were two additional goals. One was to determine if the variograms could predict or help understand how ML methods would perform on the data. The second was to determine if 2D modeling would perform well given the disseminated nature of the deposit. ML methods, multilayer perceptron (MLP), k-nearest neighborhood (KNN) and RF, were applied to model six rock domains, D0–D5, in 2D and 3D. Modeling performance was poor in 2D. Prediction performance accuracy was high in 3D for the domains D1 (92–94%), D2 (94–96%) and D4 (85–98%). Note that the domains D1 and D2 together constituted about 80% of the samples. Conclusions drawn in this paper are based on the results of 3D modeling since 2D modeling performance was poor. Prediction performance appeared to depend on two factors. It was better for a domain when the domain was not a minuscule proportion of the sample. It was also better for domains whose indicator semi-variogram (ISV) range was high. For example, though D4 only contributed 15% of the samples, the range was high. MLP did not perform as well as KNN and RF, with RF performing the best. The hyperparameters of KNN and RF suggested that performance was best when only a small number of samples were used to make a prediction. One overall summary conclusion is that the two most important domains, D1 and D2, could be predicted with high accuracy using ML. The second summary conclusion is that semi-variograms can provide insight into ML performance.