Abstract
This study proposes a fuzzy-probabilistic modelling approach for groundwater contamination risk assessment (FPM-risks) regarding underground fuel storage tanks (UFST). Considering the subjective measures of hydrogeological parameters, a fuzzy inference system is proposed to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of aquifers (Y). Measurement of the UFST hazard degree (H) and natural groundwater quality (Q) is considered as a pattern framing issue, such that they were quantified by fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of the recognizing patterns model. Though the association among Q and the probability of using groundwater reserves (G), estimated by the Monte Carlo method, the consequences of contamination (C) were measured. Associating Y, H, and C, the basic and value-weighted risk assessment of groundwater contamination was performed in the urban zone of Belém city, Pará state, Brazil. The results showed that the majority of UFSTs concentrated in the more urbanized zone were classified by FPM-risks as high basic risk and very high value-weighted risk of groundwater contamination. Although the risk assessment should be updated regularly because of the dynamic characteristics of hazards from the USFTs, the FPM-risks was shown as a tool to be considered for managing groundwater resources, as these models overcome subjectivities and address uncertainties, thereby providing a higher level of accuracy than usual risk methods and possibly become a decision-making way.
Highlights
Risk is usually defined by the association of the terms origin–pathway–target [1,2]
The samples made available by the authors of [44] showed the physicochemical parameters that make up the natural quality analyses of groundwater, which can be tabulated
The groundwater contamination risk assessment method proposed here is a preventive alternative to be considered during the management of groundwater resources, as it overcomes subjectivities and addresses uncertainties in the assessment of intrinsic vulnerability, risk, and water quality and the estimation of groundwater reserve use
Summary
Risk is usually defined by the association of the terms origin–pathway–target [1,2]. The “origin”refers to the identification of polluting agents and contaminant loads associated with the source hazards (H). Risk is usually defined by the association of the terms origin–pathway–target [1,2]. Refers to the identification of polluting agents and contaminant loads associated with the source hazards (H). The “pathway” is associated with the intrinsic vulnerability (Y) of an aquifer for contamination. For association among H and Y, the authors of [2] suggested a basic risk (Rb ) to express it by the following: Rb = Y × H. The “target” is related to the possible consequences of contamination events (socioeconomic and environmental impacts). According to the authors of [2], the consequence of contamination (C) is associated with the product of the groundwater reserve (G) and the quality (Q)
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