Abstract
[For the English abstract and full text of the article please see the attached PDF-File (English version follows Russian version)].ABSTRACT As a probabilistic model for calculating reliability of rail fastenings, a triangular distribution with two parameters, the maximum and the most probable, is used. Fuzzy numerical probability analysis with the use of simulation modeling suggests that experts, using statistical and expert information, can numerically estimate the maximum value of the operating time, and for the second value (mode) may offer only the interval of its change. This is the most realistic situation in practical applications in conditions of uncertainty in the initial data. The algorithm of fuzzy analysis, which is approved on the basis of expert information, is proposed. Keywords: rail fastenings, reliability indicators, numerical probability analysis, simulation modeling.
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