Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for Prioritisation of Road Project Investments: Validity Evidence from Lagos State

Abstract

Decision making process for prioritizing investment on road projects can be very challenging within the public sector as it is influenced by several factors such as political, social and economic factors. The importance of designing a reliable scientific model to address the associated challenges is key for making optimal decisions about investment in road projects. This study focused on prioritizing investment on road projects in Lagos State. In a bid to achieve this, a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model was developed. The model comprised of the Delphi Technique, Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution. The Delphi technique was utilized to determine and rank criteria that should be considered. Agreement among raters was measured using Kendall’s coefficient of concordance (W). A simplified model for decision-making on prioritization of investment on road projects was developed with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). AHP was employed for obtaining the weight of each criterion considered, while TOPSIS was used to analyze three existing projects based on the criteria already identified in this study. The result showed that Agege - Pen Cinema Flyover ranked as the most important alternative for consideration, while Agric - Isawo Road and, Lekki-Epe Expressway ranked second and third respectively.