FUZZY MODELLING IN RISK ASSESSMENT OF OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION ENTERPRISES’ ACTIVITY

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop a fuzzy model of assessment of risks of activities of oil and gas production enterprises. Methodology. Due to a large number of factors, influencing the probability of risk occurrence, and in order to obtain a comprehensive indicator during the research, we have applied a fuzzy cascade model of the Mamdani type. Research results. In the conditions of instability and constant uncertainty of oil and gas production processes, identification and forecasting of the occurrence of risks of operations of oil and gas production enterprises by traditional mathematical methods of modelling provide no required reliability and accuracy of forecasting. In this regard, we propose an integral assessment and application of the fuzzy logic methodology for obtaining the required results for the adoption of effective managerial decisions. Despite the complexity of the mathematical apparatus, risk assessment on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets makes it possible to create a sufficiently flexible model, which will operate with a large number of input arguments and give as a resultant variable a value, which can be considered to be objective with some degree of approximation. Practical importance. The step-by-step addition of each group of risk factors to the model allows obtaining reliable results of the probability of occurrence of risk events on a real-time basis, which significantly reduces the company’s losses. Value/originality. According to the results of the research, the Mamdani-type fuzzy cascade model of the assessment of risks of the activities of the oil and gas production enterprises is developed for the first time.