FUZZY MODELING OF SWITCHING EQUIPMENT FOR TASKS OF ASSESSING THE RISK OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS IN THE EPS IN CASE OF ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT FAILURES

Abstract

Today in the electric power industry of Ukraine the issue of assessing the risk of EPS operation due to failures of electrical equipment is particularly important. Failures are associated with significant level of aging and low replacement rates of electrical equipment, also with the possible simultaneous emergency decommissioning of several elements as a result of terrorist attacks.
 Based on the analysis of the operating conditions of high-voltage switching equipment, standards and operational documentation method of diagnosing the technical condition of SF6 circuit breakers is proposed. This method is based on the use of fuzzy set theory.
 To assess the risk of power outages in the EPS in case of electrical equipment failures, a linguistic model is proposed for determining the total residual life and the probability of failure of SF6 high-voltage circuit breakers of various types. Which is based on the aggregation of information on the technical condition of individual functional units.
 An approach is proposed to take into account the importance of individual units of the circuit breaker in terms of the impact on the total residual life by weight coefficients determined due to failure statistics. The result of determining the total residual life is the ability to estimate the probability of failure on the observation time interval.
 Tuning and adaptation of the developed linguistic model of the SF6 circuit breaker to real operating conditions is provided by adjusting the parameters of the membership functions of the terms of the input linguistic variables using weighting coefficients and fuzzy inference with weighted average truth.
 The developed linguistic mathematical model for assessing the technical condition and probability of failure of SF6 circuit breakers can be used as a component of the complex of risk analysis programs in the EPS. And the formation of preventive actions to ensure the operational reliability of electrical equipment and regime reliability of the EPS in case of emergency equipment failures.