Abstract
ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE Predict the number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia associated with exposure to air pollutants in the city of São José dos Campos, São Paulo State.METHODS This is a computational model using fuzzy logic based on Mamdani’s inference method. For the fuzzification of the input variables of particulate matter, ozone, sulfur dioxide and apparent temperature, we considered two relevancy functions for each variable with the linguistic approach: good and bad. For the output variable number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia, we considered five relevancy functions: very low, low, medium, high and very high. DATASUS was our source for the number of hospitalizations in the year 2007 and the result provided by the model was correlated with the actual data of hospitalization with lag from zero to two days. The accuracy of the model was estimated by the ROC curve for each pollutant and in those lags.RESULTS In the year of 2007, 1,710 hospitalizations by pneumonia and asthma were recorded in São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo, with a daily average of 4.9 hospitalizations (SD = 2.9). The model output data showed positive and significant correlation (r = 0.38) with the actual data; the accuracies evaluated for the model were higher for sulfur dioxide in lag 0 and 2 and for particulate matter in lag 1.CONCLUSIONS Fuzzy modeling proved accurate for the pollutant exposure effects and hospitalization for pneumonia and asthma approach.
Highlights
Air pollution is a serious environmental issue, given its impact on human health, especially cardiovascular and respiratory systems[1,2].In Brazil, especially in large urban centers, exposure to pollutants like particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) is associated with hospitalizations for respiratory diseases such as asthma and pneumonia, thanks to the pollutants easy reach to the respiratory tract[3,16].Currently, this issue extends beyond major urban centers[7,11] and is affecting cities of medium and small size[1,6,8]
In the year of 2007, 1,710 hospitalizations by pneumonia and asthma were recorded in São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo, with a daily average of 4.9 hospitalizations (SD = 2.9)
The model output data showed positive and significant correlation (r = 0.38) with the actual data; the accuracies evaluated for the model were higher for sulfur dioxide in lag 0 and 2 and for particulate matter in lag 1
Summary
In Brazil, especially in large urban centers, exposure to pollutants like particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) is associated with hospitalizations for respiratory diseases such as asthma and pneumonia, thanks to the pollutants easy reach to the respiratory tract[3,16]. This issue extends beyond major urban centers[7,11] and is affecting cities of medium and small size[1,6,8]. The cost of 900,000 hospitalizations for pneumonia and asthma in 2011 reached US$350 million in Brazil, US$70 million in São Paulo State, with 150,000 hospitalizations, and US$800,000 in the city of São José dos Campos, with 1,900 hospitalizationsa, representing a public health problem.
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