Fuzzy methods to evaluate the development effects of SAGD technology and its application during the middle and later stages of super-heavy oil reservoirs

Abstract

The problems of energy consumption and decreasing production are prominent during the middle and later stages of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) in super-heavy oil reservoirs. Geological parameters and production parameters have an important impact on the development effects. However, there is no quantitative method to evaluate production effects of SAGD during the middle and later stages. In order to fill this gap, this study proposed a new approach to quantitatively evaluate the development effects of SAGD by considering the geological and production parameters for super-heavy reservoirs. Where, the primary factors controlling reservoir’s characteristics and development effects of SAGD were determined by using numerical simulation method. There are 42 well pairs that have already entered the middle and later stages using SAGD in the Xinjiang oil field, China, which were taken as an example. Firstly, a fuzzy cluster analysis model was established to classify reservoir by considering three geological indicators. The results indicated the potential of production for each well pair. Then a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established to evaluate development effects by considering five production indicators. The new standards and ranking of evaluation indicators were quantitatively confirmed by using analytic hierarchy processes. Finally, the approach combined reservoirs classification and development effects evaluation to provide a quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of each well pair. The oil recovery ratio and utilization degree of the horizontal section can clearly reflect the development effects according to comprehensive evaluation results, which means that when the well group meets the recovery factor less than 3.0% and the utilization degree of horizontal section less than 85.0%, the development effects are evaluated as “Category III”. Based on the evaluation results, the corresponding follow-up adjustment measures can be adopted. This study has guidance on the development of technical countermeasures for different types of well pairs.