Fuzzy logic-based forecasting model

Abstract

In this paper a fuzzy logic-based software tool, fuzzy logic advisory tool (FLAT), for demand forecasting of signal transmission products is presented. The FLAT was developed for the prediction of demand of about 1000 different products in order to aid materials purchasing process of about 14,000 different components in the electronics manufacturing processes of Nokia Network Systems's Haukipudas factory. The prediction values of different products are inferred by starting from a set of eight input values. Each input value is fuzzied by the FLAT. Thereafter, fuzzy results are inferred in three sequential phases. In each phase the number of variables is split due to hierarchical structure of the inference module. A data base and a rule base are divided accordingly into three hierarchical levels. Rules are represented by linguistic relations changed into matrix equations form in order to apply linguistic equations framework technique (LE). Fuzzy membership functions for input values are determined on-line from earlier input values of the products. Fuzzy rules were inferred by analyzing behavior of the products together with market experts and product experts of the company. The model is able to produce more accurate decision-making support than more traditional approaches. This is probably due to the model-based approach and systematic data management.