Fuzzy logic-based estimation model of distribution transformers aging

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Currently, we are moving towards more ecological modes of transport. As a result, the demand for electric vehicles is growing exponentially, and new loads, related to charging, can negatively affect the operation of electrical grids and their elements. Concurrent and uncontrolled charging of electric vehicles can cause a blackout. Considering the stochastic nature of the additional load from electric cars, it is difficult to predict such a load by analytical methods. The fuzzy logic approach can be used to formalize the tasks with ambiguity. In this paper, a fuzzy-based block diagram of the algorithm was developed in the MATLAB-Simulink environment for evaluating the impact of the charging load of electric vehicles on the aging of transformers, as well as a model was built and the effect of various penetrations of electric cars was evaluated. The fuzzy logic-based model includes the effects of ambient temperature, power quality, and overloads. It contains a diagnostic part that warns the dispatcher of the power distribution network about possible problems, providing up-to-date information about the state of the transformer. In addition, the efficiency of photovoltaic generators to increase the service life of distribution transformers was analyzed. The results show that photovoltaic power plants are not effective enough for high levels of electric vehicle penetration, and more advanced strategies should be used.