Abstract
Fault tree analysis is one of the most effective techniques for estimating the frequency of occurrence of hazardous events in probabilistic risk assessment study. The analyst needs to study a multi component system and identifies vulnerable sections of hazardous plant based on formalized procedure. In this sequel, we have made an attempt to demonstrate the effective ness of using fuzzy fault tree formalism over the conventional approach and the concept is termed as Fuzzy Top Event Probability (FTEP). The case study 1 relates to flash vessel in an ammonia tank, while in case study 2, using fuzzy set theory, the FTEP has been estimated for the existing ammonia storage tank in a large fertilizer complex located in Mumbai India. In addition, a new formalism for estimating the possibility of a fuzzy event is presented with application.
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