Fuzzy-based dilemma assessment in confrontation analysis with applications to the Walkerton Drinking Water Crisis

Abstract

As the global population continues to rise and the processes of globalization gather momentum, the conflicting nature of water management issues is becoming increasingly apparent. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a fuzzy-based dilemma assessment method into the methodology confrontation analysis to analyze and assess the conflict problems. More specifically, the inherent logic of dilemma classification and mathematical definitions to the dilemmas are furnished initially to assist in understanding the mechanism of dilemma generation and assessment. Next, the statements of decision-makers (DMs) are quantified and assigned to a specific interval of fuzzy values, which serve to denote the degree of preference regarding their position and intention, as well as the intensity of doubts. Based on that, the dilemma intensity is calculated using the logic derived from the dilemma itself and the dilemma effect is obtained through the application of the same quantitative methodology. Then, to circumvent the complexities associated with parameter discussions, a four quadrant analysis framework is employed, utilizing dilemma intensity and dilemma effect as the two axes to assess dilemma priority. Finally, the Walkerton Drinking Water Crisis is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the aforementioned approach.