Futures Studies and National Security: The Swedish Experience

Abstract

Andrén, N. Futures Studies and National Security: The Swedish Experience. Cooperation and Conflict, XVI, 1981, 39-56. The focus of this paper is both on the development and structure of Swedish defence- oriented studies concerning the future development of the international system and on some of the major problems related to these studies. The studies form part of a long-range planning system and take place in an organization consisting of three major groups of actors, politicians, administrators or bureaucrats, and researchers. General principles are laid down by the Ministry of Defence (or in the final instance, by Government and Parliament). Planning requirements for the studies are to a large extent formulated in accordance with the experiences and traditions of the authorities in charge of national defence. Research activities are conducted by or in close contact with The National Defence Research Institute (Försvarets Forskningsanstalt, FOA). Some general problems of futures studies are discussed as a background. In the studies related to defence planning, two major approaches may be distinguished. The one is to design, on the basis of appropriate research, general long-range projections, expressed as 'alternative futures'. The other is to produce special defence scenarios. These scenarios play an important part in assessing the character and consequences of possible future threats against Sweden and may hence serve as yardsticks for measuring - by simulation and other devices- alternative future defence structures. Finally, the futures studies are assessed as a scholarly activity in a setting marked not only by more or less well-defined and articulated political goals and biases, but also by administrative necessities and institutional preferences.