Future Shocks: Automation Meets the Pandemic

Abstract

This article surveys the effects of what can be called two confluent agents of economic and societal transformation, digitally enabled automation and the covid-19 pandemic, on the contemporary economy. Examining shifts in work, occupations, labor markets, and consumption, the article ventures some conjectures on the consequences of this confluence, particularly across developed economies. The article contends that, while long-term automation tends to disrupt jobs and occupations which involve screen-facing work and, to a lesser extent, object-facing work, person-facing work is most exposed to the reallocation shocks precipitated by the covid crisis. Where consumption is concerned, both automation and pandemic-driven shocks lead to mutually reinforcing shifts. Seen together, automation and the pandemic phenomena can be regarded as intertwined socioeconomic stressors which will likely lead to even more divergent trajectories between the winners and the losers in the new economy.