FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR TOURISM PROGRAMS OF HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF BUGA AND ITS AREA OF INFLUENCE HORIZON 2021-2030

Abstract

This research presents an analysis of the strategic prospective of the tourism academic training programs in higher education institutions in the municipality of Guadalajara de Buga and its area of ​​influence: El Cerrito, Ginebra, Guacarí, Restrepo, San Pedro, Yotoco and Calima Darién, (Government of Valle del Cauca., 2016). The objective of this study revolves around two axes: 1. Identify the possible and probable future scenarios of the tourist programs offered by higher education institutions in Guadalajara de Buga and its area of ​​influence; 2. From the identified scenarios, the bet scenario is defined to which the educational institutions that offer the tourist programs should be directed. According to the opinion of experts and key actors, the policies and strategies for the improvement oriented to the development and competitiveness of comprehensive academic training for professional training in tourism are determined by public and private institutions of higher education in Guadalajara de Buga and its area of ​​influence, seeking to generate a positive impact on the environment of the central region of the Valley and enriching its development for its insertion in an international context. This study applies the methodology proposed in "the toolbox of strategic foresight" and involves other methods such as analysis of importance and governance, as well as elements of sectoral analysis. This research was carried out in two phases: diagnostic and prospective. In the diagnosis, a documentary analysis was carried out, consultation with key actors and experts; Tools such as brainstorming, Regnier's Abacus, structural analysis were applied, and for the design of the scenarios the detailed analysis of the results was used in order to propose the exploratory scenarios and from these propose the bet scenario.