Future scenarios for the Brazilian electricity sector: PV as a new driving force?

Abstract

Brazil generates 160 GW of electric power and distributes it over a 10,000 Km transmission network. Its integrated model allows for optimization among generation sources and the regional use along a wide geographical extension covering the entire country. The recent inclusion inside the grid of renewable sources, such as wind and solar, has posed technical challenges related to the consequences of the intermittent supply and the related impact on cost allocation. Due to its size and structure, the Brazilian electricity market represents an investigation testbed of a potential global paradigm shift related to the growth of renewable sources in the grid alongside traditional ones.In this work, the connections among key-players of the electricity market were mapped and based on the resulting ecosystem chart, future scenarios were built using stakeholders’ perceptions. Key actors in the electricity market were interviewed, and the two major uncertainties perceived were identified and used to create a two-driver matrix consisting of the country’s development policies and electric energy policies. The four possible scenarios obtained from the matrix make evident the central role of photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation in shaping the market. Remarkably, the interviewees do not unanimously perceive climate change and its effects on local climate as a fact acknowledged by scientific evidence, thus raising concerns as to the impact of decision makers in the energy sector.This qualitative research investigating the electricity market aims to provide insights complementing available quantitative research results (which are often used to conduct investigations about electricity markets), thus offering a different view as to the drivers shaping the sector.