Future Raw Material Supply: Opportunities and Limits of Aluminium Recycling in Austria

Abstract

In order to promote sustainable production by using secondary raw material from existing material stocks, complementary to primary raw material, information about the future availability of secondary resources constitutes a prerequisite. In this study, a dynamic material flow model of historic aluminium (Al) flows in Austria is combined with forecasts on future Al consumption to estimate the development of old scrap generation and in-use stocks until 2050. In-use stocks are estimated to increase by 60 % to 515 kg/cap. by 2050 assuming a scenario of moderate economic growth. Old scrap generation in 2050 would thereby more than double (up to 30 kg/cap.) in comparison to the 2010 amounts. Despite this substantial increase in old scrap generation, industrial self-supply from old scrap will probably not exceed 20 %, and final consumption self-supply of Al will not exceed 40 % given present conditions. Opportunities and limits of increasing self-supply through higher collection rates and lower scrap export levels are investigated in this study as the European Raw Material Initiative considers enhanced recycling to be a key measure to ensure future resource supply. Based on these analyses, a self-sustaining Al supply from post-consumer Al is not expected if current trends of Al usage continue. Therefore, comprehensive resource policy should be based on a profound understanding of the availability of primary and secondary resources potentials and their dynamics.