Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

Abstract

Soil erosion affects agricultural production, and industrial and socioeconomic development. Changes in rainfall intensity lead to changes in rainfall erosivity (R-factor) energy and consequently changes soil erosion rate. Prediction of soil erosion is therefore important for soil and water conservation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in climatic parameters (precipitation) on soil erosion rates in the near future (2046–2065) and far future (2081–2100). For this purpose, the CMIP5 series models under two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were used to predict precipitation and the R-factor using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Rainfall data from synoptic stations for 30 years were used to estimate the R- factor in the RUSLE model. Results showed that Iran’s climate in the future would face increasing rainfall, specially in west and decreasing rainfall in the central and northern parts. Therefore, there is an increased possibility of more frequent occurrences of heavy and torrential rains. Results also showed that the transformation of annual rainfall was not related to the spatial change of erosion. In the central and southern parts, the intensity of rainfall would increase. Therefore, erosion would be more in the south and central areas.