Future Projection of Drought Vulnerability over Northeast Provinces of Iran during 2021–2100

Iman Babaeian,Atefeh Erfani Rahmatinia,Mohammad Bannayan Aval,Mohammad Baaghideh,Maral Habibi,Alireza Entezari

doi:10.3390/atmos12121704

Abstract

Future projection of drought vulnerability is vital for northern provinces of Iran, including North Khorasan, Khorasan-Razavi, and South Khorasan, due to the highly dependent of their economy on agriculture. The study is motivated by the fact that no research has been conducted to project the future Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). DVI consist of three components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation capacity. More exposure levels of drought, higher sensitivity value, and lower adaptation capacity lead to a higher amount of vulnerability. Combined ERA-Interim-observation meteorological data, CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and national census data are used to estimate DVI in the past and future periods. CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M, and CNRM-CM5 General Circulation Model (GCM) are selected from CMIP5 based on Taylor diagram results. The delta-change technique was selected for statistical downscaling of GCM outputs because it is most widely used. The study period is regarded as 1986–2005 as observation and four future 20-years periods during 2021–2100. Results indicated that the dissipation of the class of “very low” vulnerability is eminent in the near future period of 2021–2040 under the RCP4.5 scenario, and all provinces would experience a new worse class of “very high” vulnerability at 2081–2100, both under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Highlights

Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered
Results showed that the variability of precipitation data in most models is less than the observation, while in the case of temperature, the variability of most models is closer to the observational variability
This paper simulates future drought vulnerability over the northeast of Iran, which are highly dependent on water due to their economy being mainly based on agriculture and animal husbandry

Summary

Introduction

Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. A key advance in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is the supporting the best estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) with a likely range of 2.5 to 4 ◦C is narrower than the AR5 possible range of 1.5 to 4.5 ◦C [1]. In this regard, in the context of human-induced ongoing changes in climate and environmental systems, the frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate events such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones with their adverse effects are increasing almost everywhere in the world. Future projection of drought vulnerability is the prerequisite step in any climate change impacts analysis and action plans

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