Future potential impacts of climate change on agricultural watershed hydrology and the adaptation strategy of paddy rice irrigation reservoir by release control

Abstract

This study is to assess the climate change impact on the temporal variation of paddy rice irrigation reservoir water level from the future evaluated watershed inflow, and to suggest an adaptation method of the future reservoir water level management for stable water supply of paddy irrigation demands. A 366.5 km2 watershed including two irrigation reservoirs located in the upper middle part of South Korea was adopted. For the future evaluation, the SLURP model was set up using 9 years daily reservoir water level and streamflow records at the watershed outlet. The average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies for calibration and validation were 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. For the future climate condition, the NIES MIROC3.2 hires data by SRES A1B and B1 scenarios of the IPCC was adopted. The future data were downscaled by applying Change Factor statistical method through bias-correction using 30 years past weather data. The results of future impact showed that the future reservoir storages of autumn and winter season after completion of irrigation period decreased for 2080s A1B scenario. Considering the future decrease of summer and autumn reservoir inflows, the reservoir operation has to be more conservative for preparing the water supply of paddy irrigation, and there should be a more prudent decision making for the reservoir release by storm events. Therefore, as the future adaptation strategy, the control of reservoir release by decreasing in August and September could secure the reservoir water level in autumn and winter season by reaching the water level to almost 100% like the present reservoir water level management.