Future potential for MSW energy development

Abstract

This work examines the potential supply of municipal solid waste (MSW) which could be used to support new (not existing or currently planned) energy capacity in the year 2000. The resource we are interested in is MSW which is not recycled or burned; which would be landfilled unless new MSW energy conversion capacity is constructed. A detailed analysis of MSW composition by individual components was used for 1990 and 2000. For each component of MSW we estimated heat content, ethanol yield and recycling efficiencies. From these data, we estimated how much MSW could be diverted from landfills to either new biomass-ethanol or new MSW-electricity plants. We also estimated where these new MSW-energy plants could be located. The impact of the planned growth in the MSW-power industry between 1992 and 1995 and higher material recycling rates have a significant effect on the supply of MSW in the year 2000. The implications of these changes are discussed in the context of the solid waste management industry. Some of the possible changes discussed include: • • declining amounts of MSW available after recycling will increase competition for MSW between and within power producers, recyclers and landfill firms, especially along the Eastern seaboard • • more competition for MSW may lead to lower tipping fees in the future • • as recycling efficiencies increase, MSW-power producers will need to attract MSW from further and further away to maintain capacity, causing transportation costs to rise • • the composition of materials reaching landfills may change if a large amount of MSW is consumed to produce energy, and landfill closures may be rendered moot. • • some areas of the country may not be suitable for building MSW-energy facilities in today, because by the year 2000, these areas may be in short supply of MSW. The analysis revealed that from 15.5 million to 71.7 million tonnes of new MSW power capacity could is be added by 2000, depending on the recycling scenario; if MSW is used for biomass-ethanol production, from 11.6 million to 31.6 million tonnes of MSW ethanol capacity in the year 2000.