Future photovoltaic solar power resources in Zambia: a CORDEX-CORE multi-model synthesis

Abstract

The exploration of renewable energy such as wind and solar radiation has the potential of reducing reliance on fossil fuels, thus cutting emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, and several other greenhouse gasses. However, recent findings indicate that wind speed across Zambia is very slow, it is increasing but remains unlikely to support large commercial wind farms. In this study, we explore the future impacts of climate change on solar photovoltaic resources. To do this, we examine the new high-resolution (25 km) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment—CORDEX-CORE simulations for the African domain, using two different emission scenarios until 2100. At an annual scale, results indicate a weak but steady decrease in PVRes of around 0.02 W/m2 per annum under RCP2.6 and about 0.005 W/m2 per annum under RCP8.5. Results further show that at an average of ~ 237 ± 3.3 W/m2 and 212 ± 2.5 W/m2, respectively, RCP2.6 comes along with 12 ± 3% more PVRes than RCP8.5. Thus RCP2.6, a greener and climate-friendly pathway, points towards a higher renewable energy potential across Zambia compared to the business-as-usual pathway.