Future perspectives for wind and solar electricity production under high-resolution climate change scenarios

Abstract

The impact of climate change on the availability and variability of wind and solar resources for renewable electricity production was assessed under the recent Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios. To do this, the Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to perform very high-resolution climate simulations (≈1 km2) for one present scenario and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The modelled meteorological variables were then used to calculate the potential future changes in wind power and solar photovoltaic power for electricity production for each climate change scenario when compared to the present. Results show a strong increase in wind speed during Winter of +45% and a −45% decrease during Summer, with future seasonal production differences for wind power varying ≈100 kWh for both scenarios. For solar radiation, the highest differences are found during the Winter (+30% to +45% increase) with solar photovoltaic generation changes varying from −10 kWh to +20 kWh, depending on the scenario and season. The seasonal changes in wind speed and solar radiation suggest a loss of seasonality, which could be a threat to the stability of future renewable electricity production in the region, making efforts towards decarbonisation more difficult. This study highlights the importance of a comprehensive approach in the assessment of the electricity production system since seasonal variability and intermittency of some renewable energy resources could potentially be covered by others.