Future pathways for green hydrogen: Analyzing the nexus of renewable energy consumption and hydrogen development in Chinese cities

Abstract

Hydrogen energy offers a promising pathway for achieving zero-carbon urban energy consumption. This study quantitatively analyzes the patterns of hydrogen energy development and its linked to electricity consumption in China's urban areas. It investigates the spatial relationships between hydrogen energy expansion, the potential for green hydrogen production, and overall energy use. Utilizing a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, the research explores the dynamic interactions between urban hydrogen energy development and the transition to renewable energy sources. In line with Chinese government policy, the study also conducts a scenario analysis of green hydrogen production by 2030, proposing a consumption strategy that balances environmental sustainability with economic growth. The key conclusions are as follows: (1) There is a spatial mismatch between the locations where hydrogen energy is being developed and where the potential for green hydrogen production is greatest. Cities with higher electricity consumption demonstrate stronger synergies in the coordinated development of hydrogen and renewable energy. (2) The development of hydrogen energy significantly accelerates the transition to renewable energy consumption in urban areas, with this impact being more substantial than that of the utilization capacity alone. (3) Hydrogen production in the Plan Scenario is significantly higher than in the Pessimistic Scenario, underscoring the critical importance of implementing renewable hydrogen projects in provinces with high production potential. Future trends in green hydrogen consumption at the provincial level indicate that addressing the challenges of efficient inter-provincial transportation of hydrogen energy remains essential.