Future Ozone Changes and Their Impacts on Vegetation and Human Health in China Under the Shared Socio‐Economic Pathways

Abstract

AbstractOzone concentrations in China are increasing in recent years and future changes of ozone and their impacts have attracted much attention. We use global chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem) to simulate the surface ozone concentrations in China in 2020 and 2050 under four Shared Socio‐economic Pathways and evaluate the impacts of future ozone pollution on vegetation and premature mortality in four polluted regions (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, BTH; Yangtze River Delta, YRD; Pearl River Delta, PRD; Sichuan Basin, SCB) and three major crop growing areas (Huang–Huai–Hai, HHH; Northeast Plain, NEP; middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, MLRY) in China. The changes of simulated seasonal maximum daily 8‐hr average (MDA8) ozone from 2020 to 2050 (−15.5 to +11.9 ppbv) are significant under SSP126 (low forcing pathway) and SSP245 (medium forcing pathway) scenarios in all regions due to large changes of emissions. MDA8 ozone in summer 2050 will be above the WHO guidelines (100 μg/m3) in BTH, YRD, HHH and MLRY under four scenarios. By 2050, W126 (vegetative ozone exposure index) in summer will be much above the maximum of US secondary standard (21 ppm‐h) in HHH under SSP245, SSP370 (medium to high forcing pathway) and SSP585 (high forcing pathway) scenarios, and in MLRY under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. Annual ozone‐related deaths for people over 30 years old will mainly decrease in four polluted areas from 2020 to 2050 under SSPs scenarios, but only increase much under SSP245 scenario in BTH (+3.1 to +4.2 thousand) and YRD (+1.1 to +1.6 thousand).