Future Organization of Oral Health Services Delivery: From 2012 to 2042.

Abstract

The United States is currently experiencing a vortex of change in both general health and oral health care delivery, the ultimate outcome of which is still not well understood. The specific focus of this article is to examine the future organization of the oral health services delivery system (OHSDS) in the U.S., with special attention given to the role of large group dental practices (LGDPs) in that future. The article describes the various types of LGDPs and their ability to change the economic characteristics of the OHSDS. Large geographically distributed corporate group dental practices (LGDCGDPs) are the type that may expand their market share to the extent that they could change the economic characteristics of the OHSDS. A wide range of scenarios is used to project the expansion of LGDCGDPs into the future. The scenarios modeled are not intended as predictions but rather to present a range of possible OHSDS market structures that may emerge over the next 30 years. The implications of each scenario for the economic competition within the OHSDS are described. Possible implications of these trends for dental education are also discussed. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century."