Abstract
In arid and semiarid zones, groundwater plays a key role in the ecology and availability of freshwater. Coastal lagoons in arid zones have great importance as a refuge for species of flora and fauna, as a source of freshwater, and for recreational purposes for local communities and tourism. In addition, as environments under natural stress, they are suffering pressure from anthropogenic activities and climate change, especially in zones with intense touristic development as in the case of the Baja California Peninsula in northwest Mexico. In this paper, we analyze the future of a coastal lagoon impacted by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. We constructed a groundwater MODFLOW-SWI2 model to predict changes in freshwater–saltwater inputs and correlated them with the geospatial analysis of the distribution and evolution of the water body and surrounding vegetation. The methodology was applied to the San Jose lagoon, one of the most important wetlands in the Baja California peninsula, which had been affected by anthropogenic activities and endangered by climate change. According to our water balance, the deficit of the San Jose aquifer will increase by 2040 as a result of climate change. The water table north of the lagoon will drop, affecting the amount of freshwater inflow. This reduction, together with an increase of evapotranspiration and the sea-level rise, will favor an increase of mineralization, reducing the surface water and groundwater quality and in consequence affecting the vegetation cover. Without proper management and adequate measures to mitigate these impacts, the lagoon may disappear as a freshwater ecosystem. Results of this research indicate that the use of a groundwater flow model, together with a geospatial analysis provide effective tools to predict scenarios for the future of coastal lagoons, and serve as a basis for land planning, nature conservation, and sustainable management of these ecosystems.
Highlights
Groundwater plays a key role in the distribution of freshwater and the ecology of arid and semi-arid zones [1], mainly due to low precipitation and high temperature, which means that the availability of surface water is low or non-existent
Coastal lagoons and wetlands are valuable ecosystems which play an important role in providing ecological services to coastal populations, sources of freshwater and refuge of fauna species
The inappropriate land planning which has led to urbanization, illegal harvesting of palm, dumping of debris, fragmentation of the environment—resulting from sidewalks, roads, and man-made structures—has generated a drastic transformation of the borders of the lagoon affecting the distribution of the vegetation and contributing to the reduction of the water body
Summary
Groundwater plays a key role in the distribution of freshwater and the ecology of arid and semi-arid zones [1], mainly due to low precipitation and high temperature, which means that the availability of surface water is low or non-existent.Coastal lagoons are shallow water bodies with the influence of marine water and a particular ecology [2,3]. Groundwater plays a key role in the distribution of freshwater and the ecology of arid and semi-arid zones [1], mainly due to low precipitation and high temperature, which means that the availability of surface water is low or non-existent. In the case of the San Jose Lagoon, the groundwater flow plays an important role in the water and mass budget [5]. Coastal lagoons have seasonal or limited connectivity to the sea through coastal barrier outlets, generating a confluence of fresh and saltwater [2,3,5]. They are highly productive ecosystems, providing a wide range of ecosystemic services of socioeconomic value to coastal
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