Future of battery metals supply

Abstract

The low-carbon energy transition is becoming a major driver of the global demand for metals. In particular, energy storage is an essential component of the global electrification trend, and it relies on the supply of battery metals. The International Energy Agency assesses that, in a scenario that meets the Paris Agreement goals, global installation of utility-scale battery storage is set for a 25-fold increase within the next two decades, and battery demand from electric vehicles grows by nearly 40 times (International Energy Agency (IEA) 2021). Under such scenario, overall demand for metals would grow by 30 times. Most of these metals will need to be sourced from primary ores, and the mining sector to grow as a result. As countries accelerate their efforts to reduce emissions, they need to make sure their energy systems remain resilient, secure, and sustainable. Numerous studies have highlighted the increased impacts of sourcing those metals from conventional mines (Watari et al., 2020). An increasing body of research have shown that current estimates of primary supply do not consider the likelihood that some deposits may never achieve production because of both technical and non-technical , also known as Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG), challenges (Éléonore et al., 2020; Valenta et al., 2019). Against this backdrop, there is a need to develop a better understanding of future demand for battery metals, including an analysis of technology development trends which may influence the degree to which factors such as recycling, demand reduction and alternative technologies affect demand scenarios. In addition, there is a need for a rigorous estimate of future primary metal supply which includes an assessment of the proportion of known resources which may be inaccessible due to both technical and ESG challenges