Future land use/cover changes in Romania: regional simulations based on CLUE-S model and CORINE land cover database

Abstract

Since 1990, a series of fundamental political and socioeconomic transformations in Romania have led to important structural and functional changes in the land use/cover system. This paper aims to assess the past land use/cover dynamics during the period 1990–2006 and to simulate future changes (2007–2050) to identify the main land use/cover change processes and their potential environmental and land management implications. The simulation was carried out using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model with the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) database and several biophysical and socioeconomic explanatory variables associated with the current land use/cover pattern. Using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method and cross-classification maps, statistical and spatial validation was assessed to evaluate the performance of the predicted data. The predicted map could represent a useful tool for monitoring and quantifying spatial and temporal land use/cover changes at national and particularly regional level, in order to adopt appropriate land use planning and environmental policy in line with sustainable development principles. In addition, the results could be used for further analyses to examine the consequences of land use/cover changes on landscape diversity and biodiversity, the interaction between land use/cover changes and natural hazards, or the implications for ecosystem services.