Abstract
Urban flooding is the most common type of disaster and the one that hit people most. Unplanned urbanization processes increase the recurrence of these events due to soil impermeabilization. Thus, land-use and land-cover is an important factor for urban flood research. Besides, mapping flood-prone areas has been an alternative for disaster prevention and urban planning. However, the use of future land-use and land-cover scenarios for flood mapping is a factor that still requires investigation. The study that is being developed by the authors of this paper aims to identify flood-prone areas in the upper third of the Ligeiro River basin in the city of Pato Branco, Parana, Brazil. For this purpose, this research makes use of the GIS-AHP integration, considering a current scenario and future land-use and land-cover scenarios. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to construct possible land-use and land-cover scenarios, according to municipal legislation, that could serve as a basis for mapping flood-prone areas. Two scenarios were built using Geographic Information Systems software. This tool proved to be efficient in the elaboration of maps and land representation. Pato Branco already has a history of flooding with the current scenario of land-use and land-cover. With future land-use and land-cover scenarios, it is possible to verify the influence of urban sprawl on urban flooding.
 Keywords: Land-use and land-cover (LULC), Floods, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Highlights
Events such as earthquakes, floods, and landslides, for example, are innate to Earth, differ from place to place, and change the environment over time
One of the objectives of this main study is to construct possible Land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenarios, according to municipal legislation, that could serve as a basis for mapping flood-prone areas
Flooding is the most recurring type of disaster around the world. The intensity of these events has worsened over the years with population growth and unplanned urbanization
Summary
Floods, and landslides, for example, are innate to Earth, differ from place to place, and change the environment over time. Humankind began to occupy areas susceptible to these phenomena, and without adequate infrastructure monitoring. From this moment onwards these events are called disasters [1], a consequence of the urban expansion process. Scenarios for Mapping Flood-prone Areas in Pato Branco City, Brazil” in International Congress on Engineering — Engineering for Evolution, KnE Page 314. According to [2], among the types of disasters, floods were the most recurring around the world between 1998 and 2017, with over 43% from a total of 7,255 logged events. Still, according to the same survey, flooding was the type of disaster that hit people most during the same period of 1998 and 2017, with more than 2 billion people affected. In Brazil, [3] pointed out that hydrometeorological disasters, such as floods and droughts, caused the most damage and death during 1999 and 2012
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