Future impacts of the reforestation policy on the atmospheric parameters in Ireland: a sensitivity study including heat discomfort impacts on humans and livestock

Abstract

The increase of temperature attributed to anthropogenic emissions is projected to continue in future climate scenarios. Protocols and policies are being put in place in several European countries to reduce both emissions and impact of human activities on climate. The Irish Reforestation policy is a good example of such protocols. Nevertheless often contemplated policies do not take into account their potential effects on the atmospheric variables. This study aims to assess the influence of the increase of vegetation cover over Ireland, on surface temperature, livestock and human heat comfort, using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW 3.7.1) model. Multi-scale numerical simulations are performed under two scenarios: (i) a “control scenario” con- sidering no change in vegetation cover with respect to the prescribed one and (ii) a “green scenario” with increased tree cover based on the introduced Irish Reforestation policy. To simulate this policy, the cropland and vegetative mo- saic is substituted with evergreen broad leaf forest, increasing the total forest area from 19.7% to 36.2% of the land in the analyzed domain. This change in vegetation cover increases the temperature over the simulated domain up to 0.7oC and, moreover, it enhances both human and livestock heat discom- fort during the day-time, with different magnitude all over the domain. It is concluded that the reforestation policy, which is introduced to mitigate the climate warming and greenhouse gas emissions, causes a further increase in temperature along with heat discomfort to both human and livestock.