Abstract
The diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (− 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (− 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.
Highlights
The diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution
A clear understanding concerning the variation of future water availability and its spatiotemporal distribution could be a significant asset to the scientific community and policymakers in investigating the associated risks while formulating any kind of river basin management plans and disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies
In the South Asian river basins, the annual change in maximum temperature is estimated to remain within the range 1 to 1.5 °C (1.2 to 2 °C), 1.8 to 3.1 °C (2.7 to 4.7 °C), and 2.3 to 4.1 °C (4.5 to 7.6 °C) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the 20 s, 50 s, and 80 s
Summary
The diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Previous studies show that streamflow in major rivers across the globe is expected to range from − 96 to 212% within 50 years accompanied by an increase in intensity of hydrological extremes in terms of both magnitude and frequency[1,2,6] In such a scenario, an understanding of river hydrology and its evolution within future climatic conditions is of immense significance for water resources management and sustainable development. Basin scale studies can capture the local phenomena, but are limited within the watershed scale, failing to provide a holistic picture over a large region In this context, this study investigates the impact of climate change on the hydrology of 19 river basins (Supplementary Table 5 and Supplementary Fig. 6) in Asia with the aim of capturing trends in relation to different geo-climatic conditions. Potential hydrological extremes were evaluated based on streamflow exceeding a given percentage (Q5 and Q95) of time over the analysis p eriod[19]
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