Abstract
Abstract. In an increasing hydro-climatic risk context as a result of climate change, this work aims to identify future hydro-hazard hot-spots as a result of climate change across Great Britain. First, flood and drought hazards were defined and selected in a consistent and parallel approach with a threshold method. Then, a nation-wide systematic and robust statistical framework was developed to quantify changes in frequency, magnitude, and duration, and assess time of year for both droughts and floods, and the uncertainty associated with climate model projections. This approach was applied to a spatially coherent statistical database of daily river flows (Future Flows Hydrology) across Great Britain to assess changes between the baseline (1961–1990) and the 2080s (2069–2098). The results showed that hydro-hazard hot-spots are likely to develop along the western coast of England and Wales and across north-eastern Scotland, mainly during the winter (floods) and autumn (droughts) seasons, with a higher increase in drought hazard in terms of magnitude and duration. These results suggest a need for adapting water management policies in light of climate change impact, not only on the magnitude, but also on the timing of hydro-hazard events, and future policy should account for both extremes together, alongside their potential future evolution.
Highlights
Hydrological extremes, floods and droughts, cause significant economic damages and pose risks to lives worldwide (Quesada-Montana et al, 2018)
These concerns are reflected in the Environment Agency research priorities (Environment Agency, 2014) where “understanding of hydrohazards and their impact on people” within a changing climate is an area of critical importance to the nation
For the 50th percentile, representing the median trend across the 11 climatic projection ensemble members, 48 catchments are defined as hot-spots www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/5387/2018/
Summary
Hydrological extremes, floods and droughts, cause significant economic damages and pose risks to lives worldwide (Quesada-Montana et al, 2018). The UK’s vulnerability to drought hazard has reached the warning threshold for the Water Exploitation Index that defines it as a water-stressed country (EEA, 2008), and the financial impact of the recent drought of 2011/12 was GBP 70–165 million. These risks, alongside their likely exacerbation associated with the future climate, have been recognized by the UK Government Water White Paper (HM Government, 2011), which highlights that “drought conditions are likely to be more common”. The Committee on Climate Change identified flooding and water supply shortage as two of the UK’s most important climate change risks (ASC, 2016), their future highmagnitude risks estimated with high confidence, suggesting that more action is urgently needed to face these issues
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