Future Health Scenarios at the global level

Abstract

Abstract Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is critical to anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Forecasting future population under prospective policy scenarios is an invaluable tool to investigate the potential consequences of today's policy decisions as they unfold over time. Future Health Scenarios (FHS) at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) produces future population forecasts under reference and alternative policy scenarios modelled as a function of fertility, migration, and cause-specific mortality rates. In this workshop, we will introduce FHS's forecasting methodology framework that also includes forecasting of cause-specific non-fatal health loss, including years lived with disability (YLD), DALYs and healthy life expectancy. We will discuss challenges and solutions to forecasting using statistical models as a function of drivers of health, and highlight forecasting results publicly available in IHME's viz tools.