Future harvesting pressure on European forests

Abstract

We provide quantitative insight in the spatial distribution of the future supply of wood as a raw material from European forests (27 countries) until 2060. This supply is tested for two scenarios: ‘projection of historical management’ and ‘new management trends’ and compared against a benchmark scenario. The new management trends scenario incorporates influences of issues as nature-oriented management, carbon credits and increased demand for bio-energy. The results of these projections provide insight in the state of the European forests and indicate that under the ‘new management trends’ supply can still increase to 729 million m3 by 2060 in Europe, whereby almost throughout Europe we allow harvest to be higher than increment for some time. Without linking countries dynamically through international trade, we identify regions where harvesting pressure is highest. Under the new management trends scenario, the harvested volume is reduced with 82 million m3/year (compared to ‘projection of historical management’) because of stricter management constraints. However, the management regimes as parameterised here allow harvesting pressure to remain highest in Central Europe and some Scandinavian countries, notably Finland and Norway.