Abstract
36 THE FUTURISTS PREDICTED IT. It is already happening. Our industry is being shaped by three major phases (Kaiser 1986). Phase 1: Shakeout. The period between 1986 and 1991 will be characterized by severe competition, price discounting, and capitation. The focus is on survival. Phase 2: Market Expansion. Between 1991 and 2007 our industry will see the development of revolutionary high-tech health care products and market expansion. The emphasis will be on innovation. Phase 3: Bioelectronics. During the years from 2008 to 2028 the health care industry will be identified by computerization, bioelectronics, and molecular biology. The priority will be on technological sophistication and on harvesting previous investments in research and development. These phases will have a major impact on health ca~e marketing. The winners, the survivors of the shakeout period we are experiencing, will exhibit three distinguishing characteristics. They will (1) have clearly defined goals, (2) be cost-effective, and (3) be customer-driven. As the health care industry thus realigns itself, several major trends will emerge.
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