FUTURE EXTREME WAVES AT THE GERMAN BALTIC SEA COAST DERIVED FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RUNS

Christian Schlamkow,Norman Dreier,Peter Fröhle,Dörte Salecker

doi:10.9753/icce.v33.management.5

Abstract

Information about possible changes of extreme wave heights are essential for the future safe design of coastal and flood protection structures likes dykes, flood protection dunes, revetments etc. In this study, scenarios of regional climate change up to 2100 are used for the evaluation of changes of wave conditions. Analyses on calculated significant wave heights derived from extreme value statistics are showing a different signal of change for the selected locations along the German Baltic Sea Coast. The results are showing that extreme wave heights with a return level of 200 years can increase up to +14%. But also a decrease of down to -14% were found compared to actual conditions, depending on the location and climate change scenario applied. At the location of Warnemunde a slight increasing trend for the change of extreme wave heights could be found for 3 of 4 scenario runs with a maximum increase of +7%.

Highlights

Significant changes of mean wind conditions and directions due to climate change can have important consequences for the average wave conditions and other coastal related processes like e.g. the change of the long-shore sediment transport (Dreier et al 2012)
The results are indicating an increase of the mean wind velocity, as area mean value for the German Baltic Sea coast, up to +4% to the end of the 21st century compared to actual conditions
Analyses of future changes of extreme wave heights using regional climate change scenarios can provide a basis for the development of future coastal and flood protection structures

Summary

Introduction

Significant changes of mean wind conditions and directions due to climate change can have important consequences for the average wave conditions and other coastal related processes like e.g. the change of the long-shore sediment transport (Dreier et al 2012). Hybrid Approach For the statistical assessment of changes of wave conditions, induced by regional climate change, gapless long-term time series of wave parameters (e.g. for a minimum time period of 30 years) are needed.

Results

Conclusion