Abstract
Summer monsoon (June-September) precipitation is crucial for agricultural activities in India. Extremes during the monsoon season can have deleterious effects on water availability and agriculture in the region. Here, we show that hot and dry extremes during the summer monsoon season significantly impact food production in India and find that they tend to occur during El Niño years during the observed record of 1951–2018. We then use an ensemble of climate simulations for the historic (1971–2000) and future (2006–2100) that capture this coupling between El Niño and the Indian monsoon to show that the frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes increases by a factor of 1.5 under continued greenhouse warming during the 21st century. Despite projections of summer monsoon intensification on the order of ~10%, the rise in surface air temperatures as well as increase in rainfall variability contributes to more severe hot and dry monsoon extremes over India, thereby posing a substantial challenge to future food security in India.
Highlights
Food security in the Indian subcontinent is inextricably linked to summer monsoon rainfall
We find that the first difference of JJAS precipitation is significantly correlated (p-value < 0.05) to total food grain (r = 0.71) and rice (r = 0.70) yields in India, with decreased monsoon rainfall associated with reduced production
Monsoon rainfall is positively correlated with wheat (r = 0.45) and cereal (r = 0.50) yields, indicating a significant yet indirect effect on crops grown outside the monsoon season
Summary
Food security in the Indian subcontinent is inextricably linked to summer monsoon rainfall. Despite overall increasing rates of food production since the mid-20th century, mainly tied to technological advances and increased inputs during the Green Revolution, fluctuations in summer monsoon rainfall yet cause sharp anomalies in the yields of many staple crops. Given such a tight coupling between climate and agricultural production in a region with a rising population and nutritional demands, there is a pressing need to anticipate future changes in monsoon variability under greenhouse warming. Due to the large uncertainty in model sensitivity and choice of metrics, debate persists regarding future changes in rainfall extremes, despite the consensus that the Indian monsoon will intensify in a warmer world[12]
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