Future ecosystem service value modeling with land cover dynamics by using machine learning based Artificial Neural Network model for Jashore city, Bangladesh

Abstract

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) provides provisional, supporting, cultural, and regulating ecosystem services that contribute to ecological environments, enhance human health and living, have economic advantages for sustaining living organisms. LULC transformation due to enormous urban expansion diminishing Ecosystem Services Values (ESVs) and discouraging sustainability. Though unplanned LULC transformation practice became more prevalent in developing countries, comprehensive assessment of LULC changes and their influences in ESVs are rarely attempted. This study aimed to illustrate and forecast the LULC changes and their influences on ESVs change in Jashore using remote sensing technologies. ESVs estimation and change analysis were conducted by utilizing -derived LULC data of the year 2000, 2010, and 2020 with the corresponding global value coefficients of each LULC type which are previously published. For simulating future LULC and ESVs, Land Change Modeler of TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling Software was used in Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network method. The decline of agricultural land by 13.13% and waterbody by 5.79% has resulted in the reduction of total ESVs US$0.23 million (24.47%) during 2000–2020. The forecasted result shows that the built-up area will be dominant LULC in the future, and ESVs of provisioning and cultural services will be diminished by $0.107 million, $63400.3 by 2050 with the declination of agricultural, waterbody, vegetation, and vacant land covers. The study signifies the importance of a strategic rational land-use plan to strictly monitor and control the encroachment of built-up areas into vegetation, waterbodies, and agricultural land in addition to scientific mitigative policies for ensuring ecological sustainability.