Future economics of the fuel cell housing market

Abstract

This paper examines how a market of small-scale stationary fuel cells of up to 20 kW could look like, if, costs of stationary fuel cell systems allow market entry. This paper analyses what the market potential for this technology would be, what types of residential buildings might be most attractive, and what would be the quantitative changes in the fuel and the power market. Finally, does the perspective of stationary fuel cells offer a business opportunity for power and gas distribution companies? The methodology of this paper differs from that of other studies in that we model the operation of stationary fuel cells on the basis of 15 min power load profiles of individual buildings. From these we draw synthetic functions describing the fuel cell power output/natural gas input, as a function of a number of specific properties of individual buildings. We then develop a statistical distribution of these properties of the residential building stock in Germany (15 million units), finally using a Monte Carlo simulation the relevant market shares are calculated. The methodology that is developed here has an advantage in that it is flexible and can be applied for different population of buildings. We know, for example, that the results would differ between rural and urban areas. The model may reflect these differences thus allowing deeper insights into future fuel cell housing markets.