Future dis(order)

Abstract

The current global order is structured into multiple, fragmented, sometimes overlapping regionalisms. These regionalisms are simultaneously caused by and perpetuate great power competition between the United States and China. The legacy of a past liberal order is still visible in places such as Europe, where the European Union (EU) has developed into a strong and stable actor, even if its influence does not extend to other parts of the world. Between 2020 and 2035, three types of actors left their marks on the increasingly messy state of international affairs: the EU as an example of a successful international organization, individual citizens joining forces in grassroots movements and the two superpowers, the United States and China, competing with each other. Three cross-cutting processes contributed to the contemporary global order: stepping back and taking stock, becoming more inclusive as well as defining priorities and following through on them. Where one of these processes was effectively applied, coordination across different ‘worlds’ was possible. Where these processes were absent, the global order was marked by chaos. The outlined future is extrapolated from current trends. Once we acknowledge how daunting the challenges for the current global order are, we can move forward to change them.