Future directions in analytics for infectious disease intelligence: Toward an integrated warning system for emerging pathogens.

Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases are among the most destructive and costly natural forces [1]: In terms of human and monetary losses, epidemics and pandemics rank with other major natural disasters, such as earthquakes or tsunamis. And like earthquakes and tsunamis, much of the destructive potential of infectious diseases stems from the fact that they often strike unexpectedly, leaving little time for preparation. The best countermeasure is therefore an early warning to give affected regions or communities more time to prepare for the impact. After the devastating earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean that killed 230,000 people in December 2004, the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System was installed in 2005 and became operable in 2006: It demonstrated its value after the Banda Aceh earthquake in 2012 when it alerted the affected islands within minutes of the danger. There are some systems for tracking infectious diseases, such as CDC's PulseNet that monitors disease outbreaks across the USA or the global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, but these are focused on particular geographic areas or on specific diseases. As new diseases emerge and old diseases re‐emerge, as pathogens and their vectors are transported worldwide through trade and travel, it is now time to improve global warning systems for emerging infectious diseases in general. To mitigate the threat of infectious diseases, our main strategy so far has been a strong defense after emergence. Once an outbreak is under control, we improve infrastructure, develop vaccines, and refine our vigilance in order to better respond to the next outbreak so that only a handful people fall ill instead of hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands. Our ability to put out these proverbial fires has indeed become formidable over time, but it is still reactive. The outbreak of Ebola in West Africa did not become …