Future Consumption Scenarios of Power Sector in Bangladesh

Abstract

Future electricity demand is an essential prerequisite for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this paper is to provide a forecast of electricity consumption in Bangladesh. Forecast is done here total as well as sector-wise consumption up to 2040 considering the base year 2009. The time series analysis to find the trend line by the method of Least Squares (LS) is applied in this study. We accumulated data from the annual reports of the Bangladesh Power Development Board for the years 2009 to 2023 and used that for forecasting purposes. For the convenient and policy purposes, the forecast is presented for every five years interval. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. As the study differentiated sector-wise projected growth of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, it has implications for the planners related to electricity distribution system. The findings can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the continuous future development demand.