Future CO2 Emissions Allowances and Inequality Assessment under Different Allocation Regimes

Abstract

The Summary for Policymakers of Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) presents three probabilities with different cumulative emissions to limit the global temperature rise to 2°C or less. In this paper, based on the latest information, allocation quotas for major countries and regions were determined under typical schemes between 2011 and 2100. It was found that the countries’ allocation quotas all increase with enlarging global emissions permit but with different growth rates under each allocation regime, and given global emission permit, changing in scheme parameters also has some impact on each country's allocation quota. Allocation regimes were also evaluated from the perspective of equality based on cumulative emission per capita, finding that the regimes considering historical responsibility for emissions can effectively reduce the inequalities of global emissions; And regimes incorporating ability to pay are useful in further reducing emissions inequalities between Annex I and non-Annex I groups.