Future Climate Projections and Uncertainty Evaluations for Frost Decay Exposure Index in Norway

Abstract

To implement the geographical and future climate adaptation of building moisture design for building projects, practitioners need efficient tools, such as precalculated climate indices to assess climate loads. Among them, the Frost Decay Exposure Index (FDEI) describes the risk of freezing damage for clay bricks in facades. Previously, the FDEI has been calculated for 12 locations in Norway using 1961–1990 measurements. The purpose of this study is both updating the FDEI values with new climate data and future scenarios and assessing how such indices may be suitable as a climate adaptation tool in building moisture safety design. The validity of FDEI as an expression of frost decay potential is outside the scope of this study. Historical data from the last normal period as well as future estimated climate data based on 10 different climate models forced by two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) have been analyzed. The results indicate an overall decline in FDEI values on average, due to increased winter temperatures leading to fewer freezing events. Further, the variability between climate models and scenarios necessitates explicit uncertainty evaluations, as single climate model calculations may result in misleading conclusions due to high variability between models.