Future Climate Impacts in Woodland and Forest Steppe Based on Holocene Paleoclimatic Trends, Paleobotanical Change in Central Part of the Carpathian Basin (Hungary)

Katalin Náfrádi,Pál Sümegi,Zoltán Szelepcsényi,Tünde Törőcsik,Gusztáv Jakab

doi:10.4236/ajps.2013.46147

Abstract

The Sirok Nyírjes-tó peat bog provides an almost full Holocene climatic record reconstructed by bog surface wetness investigations based on plant macrofossil analysis. We compared our macrofossil data to anthracological material derived from archaeological sites and to the newest bioclimatological models of the Carpathian basin. On the basis of environmental historical and climatic data we aimed to reconstruct the expected changes of forested areas in the Carpathian Basin. The results indicate that the surface wetness decreases in long term. Parallel to the Sphagnum-peat decline an open forest and forest steppe developed surrounding the bog. The complete disappearance of Sphagna from the area must be linked to a steady drop in rainfall, resulting in at least 50 mm deficit in the local water balance. This could have been achieved by an increased evapotranspiration as a result of elevated temperatures of the summer growth season. This deficit value must have exceeded even 100 mm during the Middle Holocene Transition.

Highlights

One of the most important features of the recent vegetation of the Carpathian Basin (Figure 1) is that both the upper and the lower timber-line [1] as well as the transitional vegetation between the open and closed vegetation that developed behind the timber-line can be found in the area
If we would like to understand the background of the natural variability of the prospective climatic change, it is important to study the climate of the past
For this reason and the understand the changeability of the Holocene climate, it is significantly important to study and analyze peatbogs

Summary

Introduction

One of the most important features of the recent vegetation of the Carpathian Basin (Figure 1) is that both the upper (according to height) and the lower (according to drought) timber-line [1] as well as the transitional (ecoton) vegetation between the open and closed vegetation that developed behind the timber-line can be found in the area. The current and the prospective, modeled climatic changes [4] might have an important effect on the transitional zone of the open and closed vegetation, on the ecoton zone behind this boundary and on the forested areas in the mountainous region and the basin [5]. On the basis of the palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological data until now the vegetation and climatic changes show a strong regional and local trend due to the mountainous zone in the Carpathian Basin. These changes differ from the global trends [3,6]

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