Future climate change impact evaluation on hydrologic processes in the Bharalu and Basistha basins using SWAT model

Abstract

Urbanisation and climate change can have adverse effects on the streamflow and water balance components in river basins. This study focuses on the understanding of different hydrologic responses to climate change between urban and rural basins. The comprehensive semi-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate how the streamflow and water balance components vary under future climate change on Bharalu (urban basin) and Basistha (rural basin) River basins near the Brahmaputra River in India based on precipitation, temperature and geospatial data. Based on data collected in 1990–2012, it is found that 98.78% of the water yield generated for the urban Bharalu River basin is by surface runoff, comparing to 75% of that for the rural Basistha basin. Comparison of various hydrologic processes (e.g. precipitation, discharge, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) based on predicted climate change scenarios is evaluated. The urban Bharalu basin shows a decrease in streamflow, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration in contrast to the rural Basistha basin, for the 2050s and 2090s decades. The average annual discharge will increase a maximum 1.43 and 2.20 m3/s from the base period for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as 2.6 and 8.5 pathways in Basistha River and it will decrease a maximum 0.67 and 0.46 m3/s for Bharalu River, respectively. This paper also discusses the influence of sensitive parameters on hydrologic processes, future issues and challenges in the rural and urban basins.