Future climate and adverse health effects caused by fine particulate matter air pollution: case study for Poland

Marko Tainio,Krzysztof Skotak,Aleksander Warchałowski,Magdalena Reizer,Wojciech Trapp,Katarzyna Juda-Rezler

doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0366-6

Abstract

Ground level air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5), has been associated with a number of adverse health effects. The dispersion of PM2.5 through the atmosphere depends on several mutually connected anthropogenic, geophysical and meteorological parameters, all of which are affected by climate change. This study examines how projected climate change would affect population exposure to PM2.5 air pollution in Poland. Population exposure to PM2.5 in Poland was estimated for three decades: the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s. Future climate conditions were projected by Regional Climate Model RegCM (Beta), forced by the general atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The dispersion of PM2.5 was simulated with chemical transport model CAMx version 4.40. Population exposure estimates of PM2.5 were 18.3, 17.2 and 17.1 μg/m3 for the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s, respectively. PM2.5 air pollution was estimated to cause approximately 39,800 premature deaths in the population of Poland in the year 2000. Our results indicate that in Poland, climate change may reduce the levels of exposure to anthropogenic particulate air pollution in future decades and that this reduction will reduce adverse health effects caused by the air pollution.

Highlights

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 lm) causes adverse health effects worldwide
Our results indicate that in Poland, climate change may reduce the levels of exposure to anthropogenic particulate air pollution in future decades and that this reduction will reduce adverse health effects caused by the air pollution
We examined on how climate change would affect exposure to and adverse health effects caused by PM2.5 air pollution in Poland

Summary

Introduction

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 lm) causes adverse health effects worldwide. The previous health impact assessment studies have estimated that PM2.5 causes over 800,000 premature deaths annually, worldwide (Cohen et al 2005), and around 350,000 premature deaths in Europe alone (Watkiss et al 2005). The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, worldwide, PM2.5 ‘‘cause[s] about 8 % of lung cancer deaths, 5 % of cardiopulmonary deaths and about 3 % of respiratory infection deaths’’ (WHO 2009). The main indicators of climate change are (1) the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, (2) land cover and (3) radiation (IPCC 2007a). As a result of climate change, the global temperature is expected to increase 1.8–4.0 °C between

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