Future changes in rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine

Abstract

Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotranspiration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ET0 is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ET0 have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ET0 and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ET0. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081–2091 and 2091–2099 in maximum temperature and 2091–2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ET0 in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ET0 in the April–May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.